DAX: Friday’s rundown

I will change my daily rundowns to a more ‘to-the-point’ style so it will be less time consuming to write (and read).

Bar1: short entry at the R1 level just below the previous session’s high Bar2: profit taking 22.50 pts
Bar3: short entry on a bearish engulfing line at the EMA20
Bar4: profit taking 12.30 pts at the bullish trendline and daily pivot level Bar5: missed inside bar entry after a break below the pivot level Bar6: long entry on a bullish 1-2-3 reversal
Bar7: stop-loss -15.00 pts
Bar8: long entry on a bullish pin which turned out to be a breakdown of a small correction
Bar9: stop-loss: -15.00 pts

I stopped trading for the day after the second loss. Closed the day with 4.80 pts profit. I still close my winners too early. I was quite satisfied with the first too trades but missed most of the day’s potential. All in all not a bad day for a Friday.

dax 20110520 5m

dax 20110520 5m2

EUR/GBP: testing trend support

The channel support of what seems to be a potential bullish flag is coming across the rising trendline. The EURGBP should find some support here while I have to admit that the 4h chart still shows room for further corrective downside. I’m looking for a 1-2-3 reversal on the 15m timeframe.

eurgbp 20110321 1h

eurgbp 20110321 4h

EUR/USD: pullback reversal?

We have a meaningful trendline on the EURUSD 15-minutes chart now with possible break lower for a 1-2-3 reversal. We need a bearish candlestick signal now…

EUR/CHF: 1-2-3 bullish reversal

The long setup on the EURCHF did work out but I have to admit that the pullback was deeper than expected. Nonetheless with a conservative entry tactics the trap was avoided. On the first chart I marked the early break of the pullback’s trendline. The price hit a new low and neither the bullish pin bar nor the high wave candle that followed have triggered a long entry even though both have suggested downside failure.

The second chart shows the real break of the trendline with a nice reversal bar testing the level of the breakout. The risk/reward was easily better than 1:1 but up to this point has not reached 1:2.

EUR/USD: testing key support

Potential 1-2-3 bullish reversal failed with breaching the
low of the first thrust. If key support at 1.2972 breaks the
EURUSD will end it’s recent uptrend
and the downside shall be favored.

Euro may gain against majors

I expect the European currency to reverse its recent downtrend against the Dollar, the British pound and the Swiss Franc.
The EURUSD shows a high-and-tight-flag just below the key short-term resistance range at 1.3448/1.3474. Recent upward momentum puts the favor on the bulls’ side.
The EURGBP shows pretty much the same picture, a strong upmove yesterday after a failed break below 0.8363 has trapped shorts. I think we need to see a higher low before a successful break above the overhead resistance.
The EURCHF had briefly tested its prior low at 1.2934, now breaking the short-term trendline. A 1-2-3 reversal would target the 1.3200 level.

eurusd 20101214 4h

eurgbp 20101214 4h

eurchf 20101214 4h

GBP/NOK: 1-2-3 reversal revisited

The GBPNOK reversal did not go too far. In fact it barely scratched the 1:1 R/R failing at its previous high above 9.8000 and now seems having enough bearish momentum to hit the stop level of the reversal pattern.

1-2-3 reversals

It seems that 1-2-3 reversal patterns have enough power to be played against the underlying trend with consideration to the corrective/impulsive manner of current trend phase.

EUR/USD: 1-2-3 pattern within a 1-2-3 pattern (4h)

Interesting chart that shows a 1-2-3 reversal confirming the same pattern on a slightly bigger scale. The pattern is still against the underlying trend therefore I would not expect an extended run up from these levels. We’ll see…

GBP/NOK: possible 1-2-3 bullish reversal

Even though a 1-2-3 reversal on the 1d timeframe may play out with more volatile swings that I would keen to trade but it will be a good experiment to watch how it plays out.

1. trendline break after lower high and lower low
2. failure to make a new low
3. breakout above level X confirms the reversal