DAX trading: 19.8 pts gain with 3:1

Another solid day in my DAX trading but I still leave too much profit on the table. The index has extended its upmove from yesterday’s low with a bullish gap at the open then pulled back well into the gap testing the late swing high of the previous session. I entered long at Bar1 and closed the trade at Bar2 for 8.0 pts profit at the primary resistance R1.
I missed a perfect setup for the second part of the upleg. Bar3 was as bullish inside bar setup for a breakout-pullback entry after a consolidation of about ten bars.
My second entry was for a short trade when the index reached the regression channel resistance on the 1h chart. I entered short at Bar4 and scratched the trade with a 3.30 pts gain at the EMA20 at Bar5. It looked liket the market will show a Barb Wire (tight trading range near the EMA with small body bars that overlap) ahead of the US macro data so it was reasonable to exit. There was a bullish gap after the US jobless data but the upmove failed at the session high and I entered short again at Bar6 on a trendline break but covered the short at Bar7 as there was no follow through selling. I lost 5.50 pts on this trade.
The upmove failed at the same level again with a bearish gap followed by a wide ranging bar with a long lower shadow. I was looking for a second entry but the price action was not decisive so I skipped the break lower. I saw the S&P500 index coming lower so I entered short on an inside bar breakout at Bar8 and booked a profit of 14.0 pts at the opening level which proved to be an early exit again.
Nonetheless I closed the day with a 19.80 pts profit which is all right with me.

EUR/USD: potential (double) fakey

The 4h EURUSD chart shows a potential failed inside bar breakout pattern (aka ‘fakey’ by Nial Fuller), in fact a double signal. We are still too early in the current bar but I will closely watch how it plays out. There is quite some room for a corrective move lower as the pair seems overbought and far out from the ‘center of gravity’.

EUR/GBP: key support still intact

The key support at 0.8467 on the EURGBP daily chart is still intact but still at risk for a break lower. A second consecutive inside bar (today’s candle is not complete yet) signal a volatility squeeze. The 0.8467 support is underpinned by the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level at 0.8447. Either way a false inside bar breakout (dubbed as a ‘fakey’ by Nial Fuller) would be a strong signal to trade.
While the long-term trend is bearish, the current level is crucial to see if the trend will continue with target near the channel lows around 0.8000.

EUR/USD: possible inside bar setup near support

Today’s pullback in EURUSD may offer an inside bar setup for a long trade. The 1d and 4h charts are in agreement on the uptrend therefore a buy signal would be valid.

eurusd 20101105 1d

eurusd 20101105 4h