I dropped the setup for a bullish reversal in EURCHF on Mar-16 following a massive failure above 1.3000 and with me booking four losing trades in 2 days. Looking at the 1d chart it seems that the Euro bulls are pushing for another upside breakout after the pair bounced from a near test of the 1.2415 low. On the 4h chart the price is above the Keltner Bands while the pair is now testing its 1h uptrend. While the big picture is still undecisive a test of the bearish 1d channel line is likely.
Category Archives: analysis
The EURCHF daily chart shows a head-and-shoulders like pattern after the trendline break. I recon that the H&S patter should show at the end of a prolonged uptrend not within the prior downleg. The ‘neckline’ of this pattern is close to the level of the trendline breakout which means that the loss of that support will trigger further downside.
The EURUSD chart shows a change of the short term uptrend. The test of the 38.2% fibo level at 1.3800 is in progress.
The EURUSD is pushing into new s/t highs but was unable to decisively clear the 1.3860 level yet. The uptrend is still intact therefore the upside is favored. I’m looking for a breakout from the current range at 1.3850-1.3880.
I expect a bullish reversal on the EURCHF. The bearish trend was broken on the 1d timeframe with the breakout level being tested. The 4h chart still shows a downtrend with a possible reversal to the upside. Once the price breaks above the Keltner channel I will look for 15m pullbacks for long entries.
After a long streak of losing trades finally I had three wining trades, two winning in EURUSD and one in EURGBP. Finally I feel like I’ve got the grip in terms of executing my own strategy. Let’s see what I expect for the coming week.
EURUSD: Bullish trend still intact wiht a new short term high. Friday’s corrective session ended with a bullish pin followed by an inside bar on the 4h timeframe. Next week we may see another attempt at 1.3860. I keep playing the long side.
EURGBP: Also bullish, the Sterling was very strong recently against the Dollar but seems unable to break the 1.6300 prior high therefore I expect the Euro to show relative strength versus the GBP.
EURCHF: Still in downtrend but possible upside reversal at 1.2730 which was the resistance level of the Dec-Jan bottoming formation. If the political situation in Libya does not escalate then there will be less demand for safe haven currencies like CHF.
The attached EURUSD 5-minute chart shows a setup for a possible bullish reversal. I don’t like this setup because the breakout is clearly lacking bullish momentum. It rather seems to be a partial retracement in a broadening pattern which is likely to get followed by another leg lower. The upmove after the trendline violation could not breach the resistance marked by the prior swing low. All in all, it is likely to be bear flag with an imminent downside breakout. I would only buy this if the price…
a) would test the prior extreme below 1.3790 and fail to move lower b) would break above the resistance (dotted line) on good momentum
The EURCHF 4h chart shows a bull flag pattern with a possible breakout to the upside. The price could not break away from the Keltner band therefore it remains a corrective pullback.
Last Friday the EUR broke the short term bullish tendline against the Dollar and the Swiss franc as well.
On the EURCHF a firm break below the 1.2820 level would confirm the bearish 1-2-3 reversal on the 4h chart with first target at 1.2727 then possible extension to retest the 1.2400 lows. On the daily chart the recent upside seems to be a correction with further room to the upside (in case the 4h reversal fails) without violating the 1d downtrend.
The 4h trendline break on the EURUSD chart was not retested yet, however on the downside the next significant level is the 38.2% fibonacci retracement of the Jna.10-27 upmove.