Tag Archives: GBPCHF

GBPCHF: pullback to 50% fibo

GBPCHF 4h trend is up with a 50% pullback testing the channel support. Entered long…


GBP/CHF: late trade report

I have closed a short in GBPCHF yesterday with a nice profit. There was a price data outage during the day therefore a large gap shows on the chart where there was actual trading.
The entry this time was how it is supposed to be, a pullback perfectly touching the breakout point. The limit order entry has provided a fairly close initial stop. The position went into a nice profit than pulled back again to erase most of the unrealized gain. I moved the stop level to break even and the position has managed to survive the night. Next morning the price failed to hit a new low and then I decided to take profit and was also considering the fact that the data outage left me in the dark for an hour or so. Looking at the price action after that it was the right decision to make.

Analysis and strategy for week of Sep.27-Oct.1

The Euro and the Pound posted further gains against the dollar last week. The EURUSD had a bullish breakout from a bearish harami thus it confirmed the takeout of its prior high. The upside is still preferred targeting the 1.37-38 levels. The GBPUSD is heading for a restest of the 1.6000 level. I missed the pullback to 1.5500 now ready for the next pullback. The EURGBP is still stuggling to clear 0.8530 level. I am undecisive on this pair at the moment. Same with GBPCHF where the pair has failed to reach a new low due to the Sterling’s late strength.

Analysis and strategy for week of Sep.20-24

Last week the Euro and the British pound have gained against the US dollar both broke out from their consolidation ranges. On Friday both pairs were showing that the dollar bears hesitated at the 61.8% fibo level previous downleg. 

At the same time the EURGBP could not decisively break above the 0.8390 high that has broken the short term downtrend, in fact it has failed on two attempts to extend the upside. The higher lows after the new high suggest an upcoming attempt to break higher therefore I will favor the Euro versus the Pound when trading against the dollar. 

The Swiss franc has corrected its recent strength against all major currencies but on Friday the EURCHF and GBPCHF was able to reject resitance levels showing bearish reversal candles with long uppers shadows touching confluence levels.

GBP/CHF: pullback to 0.382 fibo fan line

The GBPCHF bounced from the horizontal support at 1.6564 which was also a pullback to the 0.382 fibo speedline. The 30m timeframe has provided a buy signal with breaking the trendline of the pullback which is supposedly a 2 wave down bullish flag. The bullish pin bars showing failures to breach the horizontal support are backing up the buy signal.

European ‘native’ currency pairs comparison

According to the latest change in my trading strategy I have replaced forex majors with European currency pairs. The reason for this was that the trading in European currencies is focused in the EU trading hours (i.e. from 8am to 4pm GMT) therefore there is less chance to get stopped out in the AM and US sessions. To backup my decision I did a little research to see if the above statement is valid. The attached table shows how much the given trading session covers relative to the 24 hours ending with that session.

Based on the data presented in this table, only the Sterling (GBP) and the Canadian (CAD) are satisfying for trading in European trading hours. All the European currency pairs show better trading range distributions meaning wide high-low range in the EU trading with relatively narrow range in the AM session.
The EURGBP, GBPCHF and GBPNOK may suit my trading style the best with the EU trading hours covering more than 80% of the previous two session while the AM hours covering less than half of the range of the preceding EU and US sessions.
I will do a similar comparison of the volatility and trendiness of the there sessions.

GBP/CHF long stopped at 1:1 R/R

Entered long at bar 1 on a failed inside bar breakout into the direction of the underlying trend. The breakout didn’t have follow-through buying ang got stopped out at bar 2. It was a valid entry resulting a small loss.