Tag Archives: keltnerbands

EUR/CHF: bulls regain strength

I dropped the setup for a bullish reversal in EURCHF on Mar-16 following a massive failure above 1.3000 and with me booking four losing trades in 2 days. Looking at the 1d chart it seems that the Euro bulls are pushing for another upside breakout after the pair bounced from a near test of the 1.2415 low. On the 4h chart the price is above the Keltner Bands while the pair is now testing its 1h uptrend. While the big picture is still undecisive a test of the bearish 1d channel line is likely.


EUR/USD: double bottom bull flag

The EURUSD 4h chart shows a possible Double Bottom Bull Flag pattern which keeps me in favor of the upside for the start of the next week. On the other hand a lower high and a second push below the lower band of the Keltner Channel suggest a possible change in the trend. Below last week’s low at 1.4050 there is scope for a test of the uptrend trendline now coming across at 1.3915.


EUR/USD: long stopped out

I suffered a small 22 pips loss in EURUSD on a long entry. The 15m chart showed a possible bullish reversal but the upmove failed at 1R gain and reversed to hit a new low. The price on the 1h chart is below the Keltner Channel so I will be cautious playing the long side. Below 1.4145 there is scope for a retest of the 1.4000 big level.


EUR/CHF: pullback

The EURCHF pulled back to the Keltner Bands now looking for a breakout pullback setup for a long trade. However high-ranking central bank official saying last Friday that Switzerland’s record low interest rates aren’t sustainable in the long-term may spark fresh demand for the Swiss Franc.


EUR/CHF: 4h bullish reversal

I expect a bullish reversal on the EURCHF. The bearish trend was broken on the 1d timeframe with the breakout level being tested. The 4h chart still shows a downtrend with a possible reversal to the upside. Once the price breaks above the Keltner channel I will look for 15m pullbacks for long entries.


EUR/CHF: new short-term high

The euro bulls have finally showed their strength in EURCHF and lifted the pair to a new high on the 4h chart. With this move the price has broke away from the Keltner channel. The upside is in favor now…


EUR/USD: yesterday’s recap

I was playing the long side in EURUSD yesterday and entered three breakout pullback trades on the 5-minutes chart. All three was stopped out at the initial SL level. I have two notes:
1) I’ve violated the revenge rule by entering the third trade
2) The first trade was too early given the fact the on the 1h chart the price did not pull back into the Keltner channel.


EUR/CHF: breaking out from bull flag

The EURCHF 4h chart shows a bull flag pattern with a possible breakout to the upside. The price could not break away from the Keltner band therefore it remains a corrective pullback.


Notes and changes of my trading strategy

Timeframes and screen time
The biggest change I had to make recently is that I started to watch the 1h and 5m charts for taking intraday positions. (1h for trend, 5m for entry/exit tactics) The reason for this is that due to my job I cannot limit my screen time since I’m in front of my trading screens more than 10 hours a day.
I know it sounds like failure at patience but I had to accept the fact that I need to keep myself entertained in order to endure the provocation of the charts.

FX pairs
Another change is that I reduce the number of pairs that I’m monitoring to EUR/USD, EUR/CHF and EUR/GBP. It doesn’t mean that I would not take a position in GBP/USD or USD/CHF if I see a good signal.

Keltner Channels (KC)
I put up Keltner channels on the trend charts for trend filter. I still aim to use as few indicators as possible. Keltner channels are constructed by a central line (typically an EMA) and upper and lower bands are that are drawn at an equal distance defined as a specified multiple of the ATR. I use EMA20 for the central line and 1 x ATR(10) to calculate the bands. I will not use KC to generate buy/sell signal just seeking visual feedback that the underlying trend is valid.