Tag Archives: USDCAD

USD/CAD: good level to sell?

The 4h uptrend in USDCAD is broken with a strong first thrust lower. The lower high-lower low sequence indicates that the downtrend from the October high is still intact and the current upswing is rather a good short setup than a dowside failure. Now I am looking for a trendline break on the 1h chart.

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USD/CAD: upside breakout fails

USDCAD‘s upside breakout from a bullish flag has failed, perhaps we have a double top in play. I was stopped out on two attempts on the long side with minor losses. The market now negates the long setup, below 1.0120 it would confirm the downside.


Watchlist

USDCAD: failed to hit new low below parity level, a fresh high above 1.0155 would change the short-term bias to bullish
EURUSD: new low below 1.3700, seems oversold therefore a swing up to a lower high is likely
GBPUSD: testing the 4h uptrend but the lower high makes the picture mixed


Price action rules the game

The downside breakout from the May-Sep broad triangle pattern in USDCAD was followed by an aggressive pullback. I entered short but after an early profit taking my second trade was stopped out at the initial risk.
The pullback has breached the level of the breakout which made trading the breakout tricky. However the price action (red line) did not violate the prior swing high maintaining the bearish bias.
The conclusion is that in trend trading it is the price action that rules the game therefore wider stop levels are necessary to tolerate price movements. The focus has to be on

  • correct trend recognition to be on the right side of the market,
  • trading pullbacks to allow closer initial stops.

  • USD/CAD: re-entry with a minor loss

    With regrets to an early exit last night I’ve re-entered short (bar 3) in USDCAD on a false inside bar breakout. The trade was stopped out a few bars later (bar 4). So I managed to damage to an otherwise fairly profitable trade. Nonetheless the failed inside bar breakout was a valid signal.
    I had to re-input this post due to an error on the chart image.


    USD/CAD: early exit with 1R profit

    I entered short on USDCAD yesterday after a decent pullback following a downside breakout from a broad triangle pattern. Took profit as the price bounced from the 61.8% fibo level. Again the usual mistake. Leaving money on the table because of an early exit…


    USD/CAD: pullback after beakout from triangle

    The USDCAD had a downside breakout from a triangle pattern that has formed from May to September. The price has reached the parity level then bounced to retest the breakout level near 1.0200.
    The 4h chart shows a 61.8% pullback that coincides the previous support at 1.0230. A double top pattern here would be a good short entry signal.